Pigeon Post News: MetService forecast

Heavy Rain Warning orange - areas in orange for Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough

Heavy Rain Warnings

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Period: 11hrs from 7pm Tue, 18 Apr - 6am Wed, 19 Apr

Area: Tasman west of Motueka

Forecast: Expect 80 to 120 mm of rain in the ranges, and 50 to 80 mm possible nearer the coast. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h expected.

Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Issued: 8:31am Tue 18 Apr
Next update: 9:00pm Tue 18 Apr

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Period: 13hrs from 8pm Tue, 18 Apr - 9am Wed, 19 Apr

Area: The Richmond and Bryant Ranges, also the Rai Valley area and northern parts of the Marlborough Sounds

Forecast: Expect 80 to 110 mm of rain. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h expected.

Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Issued: 8:31am Tue 18 Apr
Next update: 9:00pm Tue 18 Apr

Nelson Regional Forecast

TODAY18 Apr

Scattered rain, becoming widespread and heavy at times about the ranges and Golden Bay from afternoon and elsewhere this evening. Northerlies, strong in exposed places this evening.

Issued 1:35pm Tue 18 Apr

TOMORROW19 Apr

Early rain with heavy falls, easing to isolated showers and fine breaks in the morning. Northerlies, strong in exposed places, easing in the morning.

Issued 11:18am Tue 18 Apr

THURSDAY20 Apr

Partly cloudy, with a few showers developing in the afternoon. Light winds.

Issued 11:55am Tue 18 Apr

MetService Press Release

A large high to the east of the country has moved away, making way for a front to move up the South Island on Tuesday. This front will bring a period of heavy rain and MetService has issued Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings for western and northern parts of the South Island.

Heavy Rain Warnings are in force for the ranges of Westland south of Otira from Tuesday morning, and northwest Tasman from Tuesday afternoon. Heavy Rain Watches are in force for Fiordland from Tuesday morning, the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers from Tuesday morning, the ranges of Buller and Westland north of Otira from midday Tuesday, and the Richmond and Bryant Ranges, the Rai Valley, and northern parts of the Marlborough Sounds from Tuesday evening.

MetService meteorologist Jessie Owen says, “The front is then expected to bring rain to the lower North Island on Wednesday before it weakens away on Thursday.”

The upper North Island can expect to remain under showery northeasterly conditions throughout the week. This northeasterly wind flow has another effect: it is dragging warm air from the north down over New Zealand giving rise to warmer than average temperatures for this time of year. Most noticeable will be the warm minimum temperatures across the North Island.

Owen says, “there won’t be any significant cooling between day and night, it will feel quite muggy overnight.” Most North Island minimums will be 5-7°C warmer than average, with many places likely to remain in the high teens overnight. Autumn is typically a very changeable season and it is not uncommon to see both warm and cold outbreaks at this time of year, this will still be a noticeably warm week ahead. If you have already piled up your bed with Winter blankets you’ll be needing to put them away again for a while, the muggy air sticks around until a cold front brings a change of airmass over the weekend.

The east coast of the South Island will be the place to be for outdoor activities this week, once the rain from Tuesday’s front passes through they are in line for a few days of settled weather with temperatures around average for this time of year.

Towards the end of the week an active trough is expected to approach New Zealand, bringing another spell of wet and windy weather. There is a risk of heavy rain and northeasterly gales associated with this system (https://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-outlook) so make sure you keep up to date with latest forecasts at www.metservice.com